Poll says Scroggins leads commission race

A recent survey has Republican Brian Scroggins thumping Democratic opponent Steve Sisolak in a Clark County Commission race.

But then, most experts will tell you that a political poll is not a crystal ball. It's more like a satellite photo of a weather pattern at a given moment.

In a poll of 800 people taken during the week of the primary election, respondents chose Scroggins over Sisolak by a resounding 12-percentage-point margin. The two rivals are vying for the District A seat in November's general election.

Kent Oram, a political consultant, said supporters of Commissioner Bruce Woodbury hired his firm to do the survey after Woodbury was disqualified. Oram would not disclose who the supporters were.

Sisolak and his backers dismissed the results. The uproar over term limits during the primaries overshadowed Sisolak, who now is campaigning aggressively to get his name out to voters, they said.

"I don't put any credence in that whatsoever," Sisolak said. "It was done so early. I have a tremendous amount of support from members in the district."

Scroggins and his team, meanwhile, are cautiously optimistic, saying the poll offers a psychological boost for what is sure to be a tough contest against a man with a $600,000-plus reservoir.

"It's encouraging, but you don't take anything for granted," said Scroggins, who noted that the poll was not done on his behalf.

The state Supreme Court ruled that 12-year term limits barred Woodbury from serving another term. Although he was disqualified, his name remained on the ballot.

If Woodbury had garnered the most votes as an ineligible candidate, the local Republican party would have chosen a replacement. But Scroggins soundly won the Republican primary.

While that race was still going, the survey's purpose was to gauge who would be the strongest replacement for Woodbury, Oram said.

Henderson City Councilman Steve Kirk and David Kallas, a police union representative, were included in the survey as potential candidates.

Polling 800 people in a district with about 160,000 registered voters is a huge sampling, Oram said. The poll's margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

Scroggins and Sisolak mostly split along party lines, with neither of them drawing more than 10 percent of voters from the opposing political party.

But Scroggins had the clear edge in attracting nonpartisans and others outside the two major parties. About 41 percent of those in the "other" category said they would vote for Scroggins, versus 17 percent for Sisolak.

Scroggins thinks that as a small-business owner and father of six, he probably resonates more with those who label themselves independent.

"People want to provide for their families and feel safe at home and have their kids educated," he said. "I'm an average American out there. I'm experiencing the same problems as everyone else."

But Gary Gray, Sisolak's campaign consultant, said a poll done during a primary hardly applies in a general election.

Voters who participate in primaries tend to be more unwavering in their party loyalty than voters in the general election, he said.

That's especially true during a presidential election year, Gray said.

In November, voters will be more likely to jump party lines and go for the most appealing candidate, he said.

Twenty-four percent of respondents in the poll were undecided, reflecting a hefty number of swing votes that could nudge the election in either candidate's favor, said David Damore, political science professor at University of Nevada Las Vegas.

Sisolak's wealth will enable him to buy a lot of name recognition, including with the undecided voters who might not follow politics that closely, Damore said.

The survey was done too early to foretell the outcome of a race in a district that has no incumbent seeking re-election and no predominant party, Damore said.

About 63,400 voters are registered Republicans, holding a modest edge over the 60,300 Democrats, according to the county elections office. Also in the district are 23,000 nonpartisans and 5,000 Independent Americans.

"Nonpartisan voters could decide it," Damore said.

Ryan Erwin, Scroggins' campaign consultant, acknowledged that his client could not sustain a 12-percentage-point lead over Sisolak.

"I think it's encouraging, but you can't give it too much credence," Erwin said.

A political race tends to tighten down the stretch, Erwin said. Polling numbers will change after Labor Day when voters really start paying attention to the candidates, he added.

Contact reporter Scott Wyland at swyland@reviewjournal.com or 702-455-4519.