VICTOR JOECKS: A warning to GOP primary voters
Jim Marchant was once a conservative Nevada assemblyman. Now, he’s working to ensure Democrat Rep. Dina Titus is re-elected.
Officially, Marchant is running against Titus. He announced his GOP candidacy for Nevada’s 1st Congressional District on Tuesday. “I’m running to bring strong, conservative leadership to Washington,” Marchant said on X.
Marchant had a strong conservative voting record when he served in the Assembly in 2017. But Marchant is highly unlikely to make it to Washington. He lost his Assembly race in 2018. He ran for the 4th Congressional District seat in 2020 and lost in the general election. In 2022, Democrat Cisco Aguilar beat Marchant soundly when he ran to be secretary of state. In 2024, he ran for U.S. Senate and received fewer than 7 percent support in the Republican primary.
It’s not enough for Republican primary voters to merely select a conservative candidate. They need to pick someone with a realistic chance at winning. Marchant isn’t that candidate.
In some districts, the voter registration gap is so wide that no Republican is electable. Titus was in one of those districts before the lines were redrawn in 2021. In November 2020, Democrats had a 91,000-plus edge in voter registration in CD1. That was a 25.5 percentage point edge.
But to protect Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford in CD3 and CD4, respectively, legislative Democrats made Titus’ seat much more competitive.
“I totally got (expletive) by the Legislature on my district,” Titus said during an AFL-CIO town hall meeting in 2021.
In November 2022, Democrats’ registration edge in CD1 was around 44,000 voters and a bit under 10 percentage points. But the district is turning red. Currently, Democrats’ edge is under 30,000 voters and below 6 percentage points. That’s a winnable district — if Republicans can field a strong candidate such as state Sen. Carrie Buck.
It’s not always easy to determine if a candidate is viable or not. Adam Laxalt and Drew Johnson have both lost two tight races in recent years. But either would be a strong future candidate.
Laxalt is a strong fundraiser. He lost a razor-thin Senate election in 2022 despite being heavily outspent. If he had run, I’m convinced Laxalt would have comfortably beaten Sen. Jacky Rosen last year. Johnson lost two races, including CD3 last year. But he ran strongly in Democrat-leaning districts. That’s evidence of viability.
You may wonder why candidates such as Marchant just keep running — and losing. One reason is that political consulting firms want customers. They get paid to run campaigns even if their candidate isn’t the strongest. They spin optimistic scenarios that would-be candidates are eager to believe.
Nevada Republicans have a real opportunity next year. They’ve pulled even with Democrats in voter registration. In November 2016, Democrats’ lead was nearly 100,000. But given how Democrats have gerrymandered the state, most legislative and congressional races have a Democrat advantage. Plus, having Donald Trump in the White House will probably boost Democrat turnout.
This doesn’t mean GOP voters should reject conservatives. But they should ensure that candidates they back have a realistic path to victory in November.
Contact Victor Joecks at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.
