Ashton Jeanty new betting favorite to be No. 5 pick in NFL draft

The first five picks in the NFL draft were odds-on favorites Sunday, seemingly clearing the way for the Raiders to select Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.

That changed Monday, when the betting favorite to be the fifth pick flipped from Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham to Jeanty.

Jeanty moved from the 2-1 second choice to the even-money favorite over Graham (+140) at BetMGM and from +220 to the +125 co-favorite with Graham at Caesars Sportsbook.

Jeanty’s over-under draft position price also soared at Circa Sports from 6½ under-160 to u-275 on Monday amid reports that the Jaguars might take Jeanty at No. 5.

“There’s a lot of talk of the Raiders taking him if he’s there at 6. However, recent news suggests he might even go top 5,” Circa sportsbook risk manager Jamey Pileggi said. “Bears are very much interested and hoping he falls to them at 10. But if they really want him, it’s looking like it’ll cost them some picks in order to trade into top 5.”

MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said Jeanty supplanted Graham as the favorite to go fifth after the book took a sharp bet on the Heisman Trophy runner-up.

“This is the time of the year where it’s always about posturing and speculation, and the players have better inside information than we do,” Mitchell said. “We are more reactionary in this sense, playing off of when our big players and market movers try to come in and make a big bet on one of the players.”

The Raiders and Jaguars are +120 co-favorites at MGM to draft Jeanty, who remains the -120 favorite at MGM to be the sixth pick.

Running back is still the -105 favorite at Boyd Gaming to be the position of the Raiders’ first drafted player, with offensive lineman the +250 second choice and defensive lineman/edge and linebacker each +850.

“Some of these numbers are changing every 15 minutes. It’s nuts,” VSiN host Matt Youmans said. “I believe the Raiders want Jeanty, but if Jeanty is off the board, Jalon Walker, the linebacker/edge rusher from Georgia, is who I think the Raiders will pick.”

Walker’s draft position of under 8½ is -400 at Circa, and he’s the 7-1 third choice at MGM to go No. 6. Missouri tackle Armand Membou is the 3-1 second choice.

The first four picks in the draft appear almost certain to be quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1 (-10,000 at MGM), cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter at No. 2 (-1,000), edge rusher Abdul Carter at No. 3 (-650) and offensive lineman Will Campbell (-600) at No. 4.

How many quarterbacks in first round?

Six quarterbacks were selected in the first round last year, tying the record from 1983.

The over-under total quarterbacks drafted in the first round Thursday is 2½ (over -185) at MGM.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said Station Sports might put up a quarterback prop in the next day or so with an over-under of 3 or 3½.

“I think there’s definitely three guys that go in the first round: (Shedeur) Sanders, Ward and (Jaxson) Dart, in no particular order,” he said. “But it wouldn’t surprise me if (Jalen) Milroe somehow snuck back into the tail end of the first round with that fifth-year team option that teams have.

“It’s a quarterback-driven league. The Giants, Browns, Steelers and Saints are all teams that really need a quarterback.”

Station has a prop on the number of trades in the first round.

“This is an unusual year where every team in the NFL has their first-round pick right now,” Esposito said. “I think there’s going to be a lot of trades, especially with the quarterbacks.”

Less draft props

Sportsbooks have not done well on the draft, an information-based event, and have generally put up fewer props this year. The South Point isn’t posting props, Circa has posted only draft position props, and the Westgate SuperBook plans to take action on props only from 1 p.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Nevada books must close betting on the draft at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

“It’s not always a great outcome for our side of the counter,” Esposito said. “But there’s definitely so much interest in the draft that we want to at least put something on the board to let our guests have some fun with it.

“We’re in an information era. There’s so much information out there. If it’s true or smoke screens, it’s up to us to stay on top of it. And we know the guests on the other side of the counter are staying on top of it as well.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.