Michigan State miracle puts Michigan in betting’s ‘Bad Beat’ history book

Ten seconds remained in the game when Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh called for a timeout. All the Wolverines had to do was punt, and the win was money in the bank.

What happened next will go down in the history books as one of the worst sports betting beats ever witnessed.

Michigan led 23-21 before punter Blake O'Neill bobbled a low snap, spun around and was hit as he lost control of the ball. Jalen Watts-Jackson grabbed the ball and raced 38 yards for a touchdown — narrowly avoiding two defenders inside the 5-yard line — as time expired in Michigan State's miraculous 27-23 victory Saturday in Ann Arbor.

Most bad beats are referenced according to the point spread. This was a money-line bad beat, as the underdog Spartans were covering the 7½-point line before the final play. Michigan was a minus-300 favorite (wager $300 to win $100) on the money line, with Michigan State returning plus-250.

It was a heartbreaker for Harbaugh and bettors on his side. It was the luckiest break for anyone who wagered on the 'dog to win outright.

According to one win probability calculation circulated on Twitter, Michigan State had a 0.2 percent chance to win before the botched punt.

The loss likely knocks the Wolverines (5-2) out of the College Football Playoff debate. The Spartans improved to 7-0 straight up and 1-6 against the spread.

Every list of college football bad beats includes the 2012 Belk Bowl between Cincinnati and Duke, and the 2014 Bahamas Bowl between Central Michigan and Western Kentucky.

But let's talk basketball, baseball, etc. Bad beats are frequent in the NFL.

Where does Michigan State-Michigan rank in all of sports … one of the 10 worst ever?

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.