NFL draft best bets: Experts like Raiders to take a long shot

Sharp bettors have beaten sportsbooks on the NFL draft since wagering on the information-based event was approved in Nevada in 2017.

But this year’s draft — which starts Thursday at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin — might be the toughest one yet to bet and win, VSiN host Matt Youmans said.

“The books have been very conservative about putting up props, the numbers are tighter, and this draft could get extremely unpredictable after the first few picks,” he said.

That hasn’t stopped Youmans and Tim Murray, his VSiN co-host, from placing a plethora of wagers on draft props.

The Raiders, who have the No. 6 pick, remain the +120 favorites to draft Ashton Jeanty. But the Boise State running back has replaced Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham as the odds-on favorite (-115) to be the No. 5 pick, which belongs to the Jaguars.

If Jeanty is off the board, Youmans believes the Raiders will draft Georgia linebacker/edge rusher Jalon Walker, who is the 7-1 third choice to be the sixth pick.

Missouri tackle Armand Membou is the +250 second choice behind Jeanty (+120) to be selected sixth. But Murray recommends bets on Walker and Graham (8-1) at longer odds.

“If you’re looking for a little bit of a long shot, I think Jalon Walker at 7-1 and Mason Graham at (8-1) are pretty intriguing options,” he said. “Those two guys are probably top five on a number of teams’ big boards … and Membou is probably in the 8-9-10 range.”

Here are more best bets on the draft:

Position of Cowboys’ first selection: Wide receiver, -140

First wide receiver drafted: Matthew Golden, +140

Matthew Golden draft position under 16½: +130

Youmans and Murray expect the Cowboys to draft speedy Texas wideout Matthew Golden with the 12th pick. Youmans bet on Golden to go under his draft position of 16½ and to be the first wideout picked.

“It feels like a toss-up between Golden and Tetairoa McMillan from Arizona,” Youmans (@mattyoumans247) said. “But I think the Cowboys are going to go with Golden at 12 because he’s a faster guy and the Cowboys love flashy first-round picks, and they’ll put a speed receiver opposite CeeDee Lamb.”

Murray bet on the position of Dallas’ first pick to be a receiver at a plus-price, but it has since become the favorite.

“I think ultimately Matthew Golden is going to be the selection for the Cowboys at 12,” said Murray (@1TimMurray). “But there’s an outside chance Tet McMillan goes ahead of him.”

Position of Packers’ first selection: Wide receiver, +650

The Packers haven’t selected a wide receiver in the first round since 2002, a span that includes quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ 18 seasons with the team. But Youmans and Murray are banking on draft host Green Bay to pick one Thursday, possibly Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka.

“Wouldn’t it be something, with the 23rd pick, if the Green Bay Packers went with a wide receiver this year,” Murray said. “I think Emeka is certainly a guy that probably gets picked in the first round, and the Packers have got a need at wide receiver.

“Or maybe it’s someone like Tet McMillan who drops. Even if they trade back, it still leaves them open to take a wide receiver. I took a little nibble on that at 6-1.”

Position of Steelers’ first selection: Quarterback, +225

Team to draft Shedeur Sanders: Steelers, 3-1

“Everyone knows the Steelers need a quarterback, and they’re sitting there at 21,” Youmans said. “I think the Steelers have to take a quarterback. They have no plan for the future. What are they doing?”

Youmans bet on Pittsburgh at +550 to be the team to draft Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders before the price dropped. But he likes Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss to be the second quarterback drafted behind Miami’s Cam Ward, the projected top overall pick.

Jaxson Dart draft position under 25½: -115

“Last year, I said countless times that (the Commanders’) Jayden Daniels was my favorite quarterback in that draft and not Caleb Williams. Jaxson Dart is my favorite quarterback in this draft,” Youmans said. “I do think the Giants like him, the Saints like him and the Steelers like him. So where’s he going to go? That’s hard to guess.

“He’s probably not going to go in the top 10, but there’s going to be some trades that are going to make things unpredictable on draft day.”

Youmans also bet on Penn State tight end Tyler Warren’s draft position under 10½ (now -190) and on Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo to go under 120½ (now -155) after it opened at 138½.

“The Bears want Ashton Jeanty or Tyler Warren. If Jeanty’s off the board, the Bears probably take (Warren) at No. 10,” he said. “I like Skattebo a lot. That’s the only prop you really see outside the first round.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.