Here’s a 1st-round NFL mock draft based on betting markets
The expansion of betting markets around the country has opened up a new avenue to wager on the NFL with draft props.
While the market is still limited in Nevada in terms of time and scope to place those wagers, the amount of betting options around the country is robust.
That also opens the door to try to piece together a mock draft based largely upon those markets, though it’s still an inexact science.
Not every player’s draft position or team’s preferred selections are available for wagering. Plus, the numbers are constantly moving, and it’s nearly impossible to figure out an entire first round in which every favorite hits in the market anyway.
But here is our attempt to take a look at how the first round could look if the betting markets and recent line moves are ahead of the traditional prognosticators.
1. Titans
Cam Ward, QB, Miami
The market has essentially decided this is a foregone conclusion with Ward listed as high as -10,000 to go with the top pick.
2. Browns
Travis Hunter, CB, Colorado
One of the most versatile players in the class has moved to -330 to go with the second pick, as it looks more and more unlikely Cleveland will select a quarterback.
3. Giants
Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
Another team that appears to be steering away from the quarterback position, as Carter is now a -320 choice to be picked third.
4. Patriots
Will Campbell, OT, LSU
The Patriots are predicted by the market to go with an offensive lineman, and Campbell (-155) is a big favorite over Armand Membou (+450). Campbell is also a -175 choice to be selected in the top five.
5. Jaguars
Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
This is the first pick where there is ambiguity in the market, though Graham is about a -125 choice to go No. 5. No other player is lower than Jalon Walker at +400, and Graham is about -140 to go in the top five.
6. Raiders
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Jeanty is about a -155 favorite to go to the Raiders, far ahead of Walker and cornerback Will Johnson (+650). The market doesn’t anticipate Jeanty being off the board, as he is +550 to go in the top five.
7. Jets
Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
The Jets are -125 to take an offensive lineman, and Membou is -115 to be the No. 7 pick.
8. Panthers
Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
This is the first spot in the draft where every player is plus money, but Walker (+150) is the clear pick over Mykel Williams (+350). Walker is also -900 to go inside the top 10.
9. Saints
Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
News of Derek Carr’s shoulder injury shifted a market that was already leaning in this direction. Sanders is -330 to go outside the top eight, but -220 to go inside the top 10. That says a lot.
10. Bears
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
This one is tricky. Warren is -155 to go inside the top 10, but he’s also favored to be drafted by a Colts team that doesn’t have a top-10 pick. That suggests Indianapolis could trade up to this spot to grab Warren, who is also -225 to be picked after the ninth pick.
11. 49ers
Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
San Francisco is actually favored to pick a defensive lineman (+175) or an offensive lineman (+200) over cornerback (+300), but Johnson is priced to barely miss the top 10.
12. Cowboys
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
The Cowboys are a big favorite to draft a wide receiver in the first round, and McMillan is -230 to be the first one off the board.
13. Dolphins
Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
There has been a big movement recently on the Dolphins to pick an offensive lineman, and the over/under on Banks’ draft position is -165 on under 13.5. The writing is on the wall.
14. Colts
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
The Colts are even money to draft a tight end in the first round, far ahead of an offensive lineman (+270). Warren is favored to end up in Indianapolis, but Loveland is the clear alternative and is -225 to go under 19.5 in draft position.
15. Falcons
Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
The Falcons are a staggering -210 choice to pick a defensive lineman or edge rusher, the second-highest odds on a position for any team outside the top five. Stewart is also -2,000 to go in the first round.
16. Cardinals
Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
The odds were identical in some books Sunday to pick an offensive or defensive lineman, but defensive line moved into a favorite Monday. Williams is also now a slight favorite (-135) to go over 15.5 in draft position.
17. Bengals
Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
The Bengals (-150) are favored to select a defensive lineman or edge rusher in the first round, and Green is a fast riser, now a -150 choice to go under 17.5 in draft position.
18. Seahawks
Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Wide receiver is the second choice for Seattle, behind offensive line. But Golden is a -2,000 favorite to be selected in the first round, and his draft position is set right at 17.5 with no lean either way, so this is the right area for him.
19. Buccaneers
Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Tampa Bay is expected to take either a defensive lineman (+150) or a linebacker (+175), and Campbell is a -160 choice to go over 18.5 in terms of draft position, a number that was almost certainly set with the Buccaneers in mind.
20. Broncos
Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Denver is +135 to take a running back, and Hampton’s draft position prop is 19.5 with a lean to the over. He is -1,400 to be selected in the first round.
21. Steelers
Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
The odds could change significantly depending on whether Aaron Rodgers provides any clarity about his plans. But the Steelers are by far the most likely team remaining in the first round (+225) to take a quarterback, and Dart is -425 to go in the first round. Total quarterbacks picked in the first round is also -475 to go over 2.5.
22. Chargers
Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
The Chargers are a +150 choice to take an edge rusher or defensive lineman, and there has been a big move on Ezeiruaku to be selected in the first round (-600).
23. Packers
Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
The Packers are a -105 favorite to select an edge rusher or defensive lineman, though there has been a recent move on cornerback (+175). Harmon is -900 to be selected in the first round.
24. Vikings
Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
There is plenty of mystery about how the Vikings will use their first-round pick, but safety (+190) has emerged as a slight favorite over cornerback (+200). Emmanwori is the choice, as he is -1,400 to go in the first round, a clear choice over Malaki Starks (-650).
25. Texans
Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
Houston is -260 to pick an offensive lineman, making them more likely to go a particular direction than any team outside the top five. Simmons is -750 to go in the first round.
26. Rams
Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
While there is no clear favorite for the position of the Rams’ first-round pick, cornerback is the favorite (+225) over offensive lineman (+250). Barron is a favorite to go over a draft position of 17.5, but also a -2,000 favorite to be picked in the first round.
27. Ravens
Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Baltimore is an even money choice to pick a defensive lineman, which could give the Ravens a choice between Grant and Walter Nolen. Grant is -400 to go in the first round, and Nolen is -300.
28. Lions
Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Detroit is a -200 favorite to address the defensive line. Edge rusher might be a bigger need, but Nolen is a strong choice to go in the first round, while James Pearce Jr. is -120 and Nic Scourton +165 to go in the top 32.
29. Commanders
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Egbuka is favored to go under 29.5 and is also a -180 choice to go in the first round. Over 2.5 receivers in the first round is also a -250 favorite.
30. Bills
Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
Safety is the third betting choice for Buffalo, but there has been a shift in that direction. Starks is a -650 pick to go in the first round.
31. Chiefs
Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
The Chiefs are an even money choice to pick an offensive lineman, and Zabel is -1,000 to go in the first round.
32. Eagles
Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama
Booker (-400) is significantly behind Zabel as a first-round pick, but still should make it in. This also keeps the number of offensive linemen barely under the total of 6.5 (-200).
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
