Run for Roses ‘kind of like lottery’

Some experienced bettors try to downplay the Kentucky Derby as a crapshoot unworthy of a serious handicapper's effort. Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello disagrees.

Avello said the potential reward the Derby offers is well worth the risk.

"In a 20-horse field, what makes this such an intriguing race to wager are the exotic wagers, because the payoff you get can be a huge number," he said. "I've played the Derby a lot, and it's one of the few races where I play trifectas.

"It's a horse race that's kind of like a lottery. If you can connect the dots, it can be an extraordinary payoff, and that's what makes this such a great betting race."

Avello said he expects I Want Revenge to go off as the 3-1 favorite today at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Rain is in the forecast, so weather could play a factor.

In the past, avoiding the favorite was Rule No. 1 in the Derby. But that theory is not so often regurgitated by race analysts anymore. The post-time favorite has won three of the past five Derbys, including Big Brown last year, Street Sense in 2007 and Smarty Jones in 2004.

Avello said he will consider using Friesan Fire, winner of the Louisiana Derby, and I Want Revenge, winner of the Wood Memorial, in trifecta wagers with horses such as General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man and Regal Ransom.

He said he also likes the looks of Dunkirk, second in the Florida Derby, and Pioneerof the Nile, which won the Santa Anita Derby and is ridden by top jockey Garrett Gomez.

Dave Tuley, a Daily Racing Form contributor, said the plethora of options turns the Derby into a challenge and an opportunity.

"Some horseplayers would debate me on whether the Derby is a good betting race since the 20-horse field can turn it into a crapshoot, but the fact is it's worth a shot because you really get paid for being right," said Tuley (viewfromvegas.com).

"With all the possible combinations, the exotic wagers like the exacta, trifecta and superfecta can easily pay in the thousands."

Tuley said he looks for long shots with a better chance than the odds offered, and his value play is Regal Ransom at 30-1 on the morning line.

"He always shows speed out of the gate, but he doesn't need the lead. I think he'll let Join in the Dance set the early fractions and be sitting second the first half of the race," Tuley said. "He should be leading the field as they enter the stretch. It'll come down to whether he's good enough. Regal Ransom is the son of Distorted Humor, who sired 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, so I think he can get the distance.

"Among the favorites, I prefer Pioneerof the Nile and will be using those two in all my exotic wagers. Other price plays that will be helped by a fast pace and could light up the tote board include Mr. Hot Stuff and Musket Man."

Papa Clem, a top California horse and winner of the Arkansas Derby, has emerged as a wiseguy play this week and is 20-1 on the morning line.

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.