Speculation plentiful on former referee’s calls

As the NBA attempts to put makeup over its hideous black eye from the gambling scandal involving former referee Tim Donaghy, several amateur private eyes are at work on the case.

Since news of the FBI investigation surfaced Friday, various sources in Las Vegas have been tapped for information and the search for answers has turned up suspicious activity worthy of second-guessing.

Reporters and others associated with the sports betting industry are digging up evidence to support allegations that Donaghy did conspire to fix the outcome of some NBA games he officiated the past two seasons.

"I don't know the number of games. I don't know which games," NBA commissioner David Stern said during a Tuesday news conference.

Until the FBI provides hard evidence on specific games, there will be rampant speculation. And two games officiated by Donaghy this past season might turn out to be prominent in the investigation into foul play.

Donaghy's work in the Miami Heat-New York Knicks game on Feb. 26 is under close scrutiny.

New York opened as a 3-point home favorite and the line closed at 4 1/2. The Knicks shot 39 free throws to the Heat's eight and won, 99-93. Donaghy called a foul that sent Knicks guard Jamal Crawford to the free-throw line with 10 seconds remaining, and Crawford made both shots to cover the spread.

The highest-profile mark on Donaghy's resume was Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals between Phoenix and San Antonio on May 12. The Spurs were 4-point favorites and won 108-101, and the game went over the total of 200 1/2.

Donaghy was part of a three-man crew, so assigning blame solely to him for one of the worst officiated games of the NBA season is unfair. He did make a dubious call late in the third quarter that allowed the Spurs' Manu Ginobili to shoot three free throws.

The Suns were severely hampered in the game because of foul trouble to star center Amare Stoudemire, who played just 21 minutes. Putting a star player in foul trouble is one way for an official to control the point spread.

Most wagering analysts theorize Donaghy conspired to fix totals more than sides. If he called more fouls and the teams shot more free throws, higher-scoring games would be the result.

Of the games Donaghy officiated in the 2006-07 season, 43 of 72 (59.7 percent) went over the total, according to Covers.com. In games with the lowest totals -- 184 1/2 points or fewer -- 10 of 12 times the score went over the total.

Anyone researching Donaghy's games is looking first for major free-throw differentials between the teams and surprisingly high numbers of free throws attempted. In basketball, a sport dominated by judgment calls, referees can exercise the most influence.

Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said it would be easy to highlight a few games or isolate trends to make a case against almost any referee, not just Donaghy.

"I'm not denying that this happened. But when you pick apart these stats, they can create a lot of stories," Kornegay said. "Everybody is going to be dissecting all the games and coming up with conspiracies and all those numbers.

"But I think you could do that with any referee, and say 10 of the 14 games he officiated went over the total."

Stern said it is possible Donaghy also provided information to bettors on games he did not officiate.

It would require thorough study of game tapes to determine what calls made by Donaghy impacted the point spread or total for any of his games in question. Several games officiated by Donaghy do not raise suspicions.

For example, he worked Game 6 of the Eastern Conference first-round series between Toronto and New Jersey on May 4. The host Nets opened as 3-point home favorites and the line closed at 5.

The money was on the Nets but they failed to cover in a 98-97 victory, and New Jersey's 29-25 free-throw advantage was minor. If Donaghy tried to fix that game, he failed.

The activities were allegedly done through illegal bookmakers, and as Stern said, "My understanding is it wasn't through Las Vegas."

Kornegay predicted no drop in the NBA wagering handle next season, partly because fans will expect game officials to be under a more powerful microscope.

The league's credibility hit might only be temporary.

"I think a very small percentage of people might hesitate betting the NBA," he said, "but I don't think it's going to affect NBA betting significantly."